Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
days @dcgco nights @adjacent___
Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
“With Notably Rare Exceptions”
crookedtimber.org
adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more
Robin • Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum
My boss implemented something like this in the algorithm at Netflix. He called them “Search Backs”. Idea is if someone searches X, gets bad results than searches Y and watches a movie over large enough data it implies that X and Y are related.
For instance search “reed hastings favorite movies” no movies come up, then... See more
Thomas Millarx.comthe stream
stream.thesephist.comon scrolling
connie.surf“Allergic to Infinite Scrolling”
Bitcoin TreasuryCos: Lessons From The 1929 Crash
bewaterltd.com
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ethresear.chPredicting the 2024 Presidential Election Result Probabilities with Machine Learning
Alexander Huangallora.network