Lucas Kohorst
Emergent Ventures
Emergent Ventures Prompt The proposal should consist of a proposal no longer than 1500 words. You may also attach supplementary materials, but we will read the proposal first and it must stand on its own. The first part of the proposal should be about you. Tell us your personal story, and how i...
Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities
Using prediction markets to improve US intelligence capabilities. The document discusses the potential of prediction markets to enhance strategic and tactical intelligence work within the US Intelligence Community.
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
The document discusses the historical evolution of political betting markets across various countries and time periods, highlighting the long-standing tradition of wagering on political events throughout history.
forecasting.pdf
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
free ideas, by jordan gonen
Copy of Emergent Ventures Application
Who am I? I’m a 25 year old writer from London, mostly writing on Samstack (at samstack.io), focusing on social science, Effective Altruism, and forecasting. My background is in social science - I did a master’s degree in quantitative political science, and found that a load of the research I wa...
