adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more
My boss implemented something like this in the algorithm at Netflix. He called them “Search Backs”. Idea is if someone searches X, gets bad results than searches Y and watches a movie over large enough data it implies that X and Y are related.
For instance search “reed hastings favorite movies” no movies come up, then... See more