Lucas Kohorst
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.
Folklore Public Database of Curation
Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
The Damped Spring Report - "Shifts in growth, inflation, risk premium and positioning all lead to opportunities in markets"
The report discusses the shifts in growth, inflation, risk premium, and positioning in the market, highlighting opportunities and potential outcomes as Act 3 unfolds.
Founder Personal Financial Model [Andrew Rea] - Google Drive
: Obligatory note that some of the data is altered to not be exact such as Salary but most of the data is directional or exactly what my personal burn was in preparation.
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
Copy of Emergent Ventures Application
Who am I? I’m a 25 year old writer from London, mostly writing on Samstack (at samstack.io), focusing on social science, Effective Altruism, and forecasting. My background is in social science - I did a master’s degree in quantitative political science, and found that a load of the research I wa...
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
When Markets Beat
The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.
by Gary Stix
Member Benefits Guide
This document provides information on the member benefits offered by Employment Commons LCA, including medical, dental, vision, life insurance, disability, and other additional benefits.
