Lucas Kohorst

@lucas

days @dcgco nights @adjacent___

kohor.st

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Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage — LessWrong

abstractapplic lesswrong.com

Prediction Markets

gwern.net

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.

users.nber.org

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience — EA Forum

Charles Dillon forum.effectivealtruism.org

Venture Situations: The New Normal in Silicon Valley - Proof Group

proofgroup.xyz

The Matador

Marko Kolanovic thelastbearstanding.com

nytimes.com

How to Predict the Future

Santi Ruiz statecraft.pub

Portrait of a Trader: Clockwork (Part II) - Churning and Burning

churningandburning.com