Lucas Kohorst

@lucas

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On the Impossible: Why Cassava Sciences’ simufilam will fail Phase 3 clinical trials and the stock will trade to $2

The text analyzes Cassava Sciences' simufilam, predicting its failure in Phase 3 trials for Alzheimer's disease due to ineffective mechanisms, poor pharmacokinetics, and manipulative data practices.

ontheimpossible.vercel.app

Emergent Ventures FAQ

Sam Atis samstack.io

Welfare should be replaced with a direct cash payment to anyone who chooses to give up their right to vote, scaled inversely to which vote you’re giving up (city highest, federal lowest)

Ven x.com

Predictions | GeoVane | Substack

predictions.substack.com

How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future

lawfareblog.com

Second's an Eternity

Thorsten Ball registerspill.thorstenball.com

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

Tyler Cowen marginalrevolution.com

ILS_20220614.pdf

actuary.org

Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries

The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.

erim.eur.nl