Lucas Kohorst
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Lucas Kohorst
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Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage — LessWrong
abstractapplic
lesswrong.com
Prediction Markets
gwern.net
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
users.nber.org
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience — EA Forum
Charles Dillon
forum.effectivealtruism.org
Venture Situations: The New Normal in Silicon Valley - Proof Group
proofgroup.xyz
The Matador
Marko Kolanovic
thelastbearstanding.com
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
How to Predict the Future
Santi Ruiz
statecraft.pub
Portrait of a Trader: Clockwork (Part II) - Churning and Burning
churningandburning.com