Lucas Kohorst
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.
- This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
- Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
DIY Geoengineering
The text outlines a DIY approach to geoengineering, specifically using weather balloons to release reflective particles, aiming to reduce Earth's temperature and combat climate change.
by Luke Iseman
Copy of Emergent Ventures Application
Who am I? I’m a 25 year old writer from London, mostly writing on Samstack (at samstack.io), focusing on social science, Effective Altruism, and forecasting. My background is in social science - I did a master’s degree in quantitative political science, and found that a load of the research I wa...
Emergent Ventures
Emergent Ventures Prompt The proposal should consist of a proposal no longer than 1500 words. You may also attach supplementary materials, but we will read the proposal first and it must stand on its own. The first part of the proposal should be about you. Tell us your personal story, and how i...
forecasting.pdf
- As desire for single-origin coffees spread, shops would sell 10 or even 20 different coffees. With only two or three brewed coffees for sale, café goers wouldn’t be able to sample most of the offerings
from How pour-over coffee got good - Works in Progress by Nick Whitaker
- The solar panel is wizardry manifest. It literally prints energy from free shit that falls out of the sky.
from Solar will get too cheap to connect to the power grid. by Ben James