Lucas Kohorst
Guide to Marketplaces-Third Edition.pdf
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free ideas, by jordan gonen
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
He Built The Fastest Growing AI Company In The World
“Lots of times we’d come up with an idea that would go on to become a great startup idea. Happened to us 3 times.” … “Good at picking things but not when to execute. Now I am”
Folklore Public Database of Curation
Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,
The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
The document discusses the historical evolution of political betting markets across various countries and time periods, highlighting the long-standing tradition of wagering on political events throughout history.
How to Shape a Market
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries
The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.
by Bo Cowgill
