forecasting.pdf

Memo on search (August 2022)

This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.

Folklore Public Database of Curation

Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,

Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise

Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.

by Justin Wolfers

The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective

The document discusses the historical evolution of political betting markets across various countries and time periods, highlighting the long-standing tradition of wagering on political events throughout history.

by Leighton Vaughan Williams

free ideas, by jordan gonen