• Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk

    The study assesses expert forecasts on the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, exploring risk factors, policy impacts, and the effectiveness of communication networks and failsafe reviews in preventing nuclear conflict.

    by Karim Kamel

  • When Markets Beat

    The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.

    by Gary Stix

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  • Decision Markets for Policy Advice

    The text discusses decision markets as innovative tools for improving policy decision-making by aggregating information about the expected consequences of various policy options, highlighting their advantages, challenges, and a case study on the Policy Analysis Market.

    by Robin Hanson

  • A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy

  • moses-response-to-power-broker

    Robert Moses offers a critical response to Robert A. Caro's biography, disputing the portrayal of his public service, addressing inaccuracies, and defending his contributions to urban development in New York.

    by Robert A. Caro

  • 2005 Kenyon Commencement Address

    David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.

    by David Foster Wallace

  • Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency

    The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.

    by Paul C. Tetlock

  • DIY Geoengineering

    The text outlines a DIY approach to geoengineering, specifically using weather balloons to release reflective particles, aiming to reduce Earth's temperature and combat climate change.

    by Luke Iseman