Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
days @dcgco nights @adjacent___
Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
Investment Needs Speculation
avc.xyz
adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more
Robin • Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum
Bitcoin’s biggest challenges | Company 0
blog.companyzero.com
Forecasting the Probability of War Between Israel and Hezbollah ...
rand.org
NYDIG is about to unlock one of the largest investable pools of capital in the entire financial system—insurance float—and channel it into Bitcoin-backed loans. This is a big deal. https://t.co/DJx6HwqdGl
What insurance does is help us avoid large drawndowns on our accumulated wealth, in order for our wealth to gather compound interest faster.
Create - free-to-use AI app builder
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