Lucas Kohorst

There’re a bunch of stats outside the markets that show some kind of extremity, like the number of state based armed conflicts nearly tripling since the 60’s, or global freight ships experiencing nearly 19x more delays they did in 2016. But these are pinpricks of colour, the markets are mirrors. If the world is getting more extreme, our collective,... See more

adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more