Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
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Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
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marginalrevolution.comarchive.is
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Who am I? I’m a 25 year old writer from London, mostly writing on Samstack (at samstack.io), focusing on social science, Effective Altruism, and forecasting. My background is in social science - I did a master’s degree in quantitative political science, and found that a load of the research I wa...
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Monthly visitors remain relatively stable with over 150k unique visitors and 3 to 4 million page views
David Chee • Is Trump really 62% to win?
There’re a bunch of stats outside the markets that show some kind of extremity, like the number of state based armed conflicts nearly tripling since the 60’s, or global freight ships experiencing nearly 19x more delays they did in 2016. But these are pinpricks of colour, the markets are mirrors. If the world is getting more extreme, our collective,... See more
Jordan • Volatility is All You Need
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
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The League of Moveable Type
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