A perspective on historical economic eras and the implications for current market risks and investment strategies, with a focus on factors such as global trade, labor arbitrage, and the rise of China.
adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more