Lucas Kohorst
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.
DIY Geoengineering
The text outlines a DIY approach to geoengineering, specifically using weather balloons to release reflective particles, aiming to reduce Earth's temperature and combat climate change.
by Luke Iseman
Copy of Emergent Ventures Application
Who am I? I’m a 25 year old writer from London, mostly writing on Samstack (at samstack.io), focusing on social science, Effective Altruism, and forecasting. My background is in social science - I did a master’s degree in quantitative political science, and found that a load of the research I wa...
Emergent Ventures
Emergent Ventures Prompt The proposal should consist of a proposal no longer than 1500 words. You may also attach supplementary materials, but we will read the proposal first and it must stand on its own. The first part of the proposal should be about you. Tell us your personal story, and how i...
forecasting.pdf
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
Folklore Public Database of Curation
Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
