Lucas Kohorst

My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far) — LessWrong

lesswrong.com

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If You Are Serious About Winning Your Office Pool, Pick Gonzaga to Go All the Way

Benedict Bradyharvardsportsanalysis.org

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Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions

michaelmbishop.github.io

It’s not just X. It’s Y.

spectramarkets.com

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System Prompts - Anthropic

docs.anthropic.com

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Why prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress

worksinprogress.co

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archive.is

archive.is

Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold Markets — EA Forum

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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How Hunterbrook Broke The Big Story

Blake Spendleyopen.substack.com

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