Where I Think the World is Going

We're already seeing cognitive moats emerge. Google Maps anticipates destinations and adapts to routines. Spotify's Daylist reads mood and time. Oura predicts health changes before users notice. Their retention metrics speak volumes: Oura keeps 95% of users, Spotify's premium retention holds at 85%.

Consider the apple: an apple tree wraps its reproductive code (the seed) in an animal-tempting package (the fruit). The seed rides along for free, gets distributed, and only needs to get to work once it’s already in fertile ground, later. Nature asks no one to value the seed.

“Regardless of which path we choose, the future of computing will be hyper-personalized,” they write. “The question is whether that personalization will be in service of keeping us passively glued to screens—wading around in the shallows, stripped of agency—or whether it will enable us to direct more attention to what matters.”

Introducing: @KalshiResearch Kalshi Research will provide internal Kalshi data to academics and other researchers interested in exploring topics related to prediction markets. The first research piece is live: Kalshi outperforms Wall Street at predicting inflation. https://t.co/lesBFAYojQ

OpenAI is Sam's quest for a god that can respond to him.

Years ago a friend drunkenly said, "the valley is filled with a bunch of guys building companies to replace their moms." And I never forgot that. If you're confused by that statement, might I suggest the classic pitch analogy of "Uber for X". The constant barrage of laundry pickup services, food delivery, snack delivery, taking a typical chore and... See more