venture capital
resources and insights on the VC industry
Juan Orbea and
venture capital
Effective fundraisers have mastered the art of risk framing, demonstrating the ability to clearly articulate the risks associated with each milestone. And then, reassure the investors on how they will meet each one of them. In return, investors have developed standardized expectations for each round of fundraising.
In that context, the onion theory ... See more
In that context, the onion theory ... See more
Fund II
Risk framing for hardware investing
Onion theory
The Indie Era of Startups
bryce.medium.com
As the amount of capital raised by venture capital firms nearly 8x’d between 2013 and 2022, the number of new startups funded didn’t even double.
When you take total VC dollars raised, divided by the number of new companies, you’ll see the average startup today has 5x more VC capital available than its counterpart did in 2013.
Rather than fund more ideas or more types of founders, most VCs simply ended up giving more dollars to more of the same founders and ideas they’d always back.
Great businesses aren’t good enough to drive the kinds of returns needed to generate the kinds of returns mega funds demand. As more capital was consumed, more risk was layered on to push from a great outcome to a mega-fund returning outcome.
Today, the fuel for startups and the oxygen for funds are being cut significantly. There is less available capital and appetite for burn
Sobriety source #2: AI as the next platform shift. Every wave of new companies that transforms their respective industries is fueled by a major platform or technology shift. The advent of the web did this. The smartphone and mobile applications did this. And there is no doubt that AI is our next wave. But does every new wave always necessarily favo... See more
The Great Sobriety for Venture Investing, Where To Start with AI, & Undeniable Data
AI notes
As a founder, the goal then becomes to metaphorically peel each layer of the onion — Each fundraising milestone turning into a set of risks being evaluated and sidelined. The earliest investors become the partners to help figure out what to focus on. Good pre-seed angels and investors are often described as “having taste” for good startups — In tru... See more
Fund II
Onion theory extrapolated out to milestone driven approach towards pre-seed investing