Some ideas to keep coming often
A principle isn’t a principle until it costs you something.
- Bill Bernbach
Anscombe’s Quartet : Four sets of numbers that look identical on paper (mean average, variance, correlation, etc.) but look completely different when graphed. Describes a situation where exact calculations don’t offer a good representation of how the world works.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
The world may makes sense at times and at times it can be confusing. When it is confusing, your model of the world is wrong or you lack some frames. So, things that don’t make sense are a learning opportunity. Big opportunities won’t make sense until it’s too late to profit from them.
Non-Ergodic : When group probabilities don’t apply to singular events. If 100 people play Russian Roulette once, the odds of dying might be, say, 10%. But if one person plays Russian Roulette 100 times, the odds are dying are practically 100%.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
Dogma says - “this is so”
Fiction says - “this isn’t so, but let’s pretend that it is”
Hypothesis says - “perhaps this is so; let’s see if it is”
Scientific thinking is about hypothesis ...
Simplest explaination are often the best.
“You waste years by not being able to waste hours" - Amos Tversky
Pareto Principle : The majority of outcomes are driven by a minority of events.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
We must expect to misunderstand. We must expect to be misunderstood. For sanity we must try to minimise misunderstanding.