long-term thinking
musings on long-term thinking in a shortsighted world. we overestimate what we can do in a year, underestimate what we can do in 10 kinda thing.
Juan Orbea and
long-term thinking
“Driving the train doesn’t set its course. The real job is laying the track.”
Polina Marinova • The Profile Dossier: Ed Catmull, Pixar's Creative Genius
“It takes at least six years for a photograph to start getting interesting again after the day it was taken. It’s the curve of photographic interestingness.” Noah Kalina
"Move fast and break things" is outdated advice for startups.
Software ate the world—and there's more competition than ever.
Our startup learned the hard way to ignore this advice, and this is what happened:
Dani Granttwitter.comAn Introduction to Longtermism
longtermism.com
Our ideal outcome as a company is not becoming the next Facebook (god forbid), it’s becoming the next Nishiyama Onsen Keiunkan, a hot spring hotel in Japan, and one of the world’s oldest businesses (founded in 705 AD).
We tend to overestimate what we can do in a day, and underestimate what we can achieve in a decade. Miraculous things can be accomplished if you give it ten years. A long game will compound small gains to overcome even big mistakes.
Kevin Kelly • 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known
As humans, we're evolutionarily wired to prioritize short-term gain. Hunter gatherers had no use for five-year plans, and those instincts are still within us. Combine that with our current economic system, ad-driven business models, and algorithmic social media platforms, all of which visibly reward cynical short-term games, and you've got the... See more