2. mental models

"Steelmanning" is the opposite of "strawmanning." While strawmanning involves weakening or misrepresenting an opponent's argument to make it easier to attack, steelmanning is the practice of strengthening an opposing argument—presenting it in its strongest, most reasonable, and most compelling form—before engaging with it.

Key Aspects of

Sunk Cost Fallacy: Evaluate based on future value, not past investment.

Ask: "If this opportunity came to us brand new today, with everything we now know, would we pursue it?"

Pygmalion Effect

The "Pygmalion Effect" (sometimes called the "Rosenthal Effect" or, in sports and education, the "coach effect" or "teacher effect") is a psychological phenomenon that describes how higher expectations placed on individuals—by coaches, teachers, managers, or other authority figures—can lead to improved performance, while lower

To add is folly - to abstain, wise; subtract, divine. - Val Delane (from Goodreads review of Antifragile)

Tail-End Risk: Ultimately, it’s low probability, high impact events that are the only ones that matter.

The Law of Triviality: People give disproportionate attention to trivial issues.

Pareto Principle (the 80/20 rule): In many situations, 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

Parkinson’s Law: Tasks expand to fill available time. Tight deadlines = peak efficiency.

Falkland’s Law: If you don’t have to make a decision about something, then don’t decide. Strategic inaction is underrated.

This isn’t about procrastination. It’s about discerning when action is truly required, and when waiting leads to better clarity, better choices, and less regret. Sometimes the smartest move is to do nothing at all.