I use two measures here - the Bloomberg financial conditions index in blue, which takes the place of the GS measure that Bill Dudley built and took to the Fed, and the Chicago Fed national financial conditions index, inverted here, in green. Both measures suggest financial conditions are very easy, not just 2021 easy, but as easy as they have been

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We believe that growth will hold up while inflation stays tame (if not drift to the target of the next year or more). In that scenario, real rates can easily come down to 1.5% (or lower), which enables another 100bps of cuts without too much imagination. As this comes to fruition, money will again flow from wealth preservation assets to wealth crea... See more

In an environment of above-target inflation and persistent deficit spending, the aggregate investor allocation to equities is likely to remain well supported until activity turns. Putting these factors together, we think that the sustained outperformance of equities has likely reached its zenith, and a correction in these dynamics can come in one o

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标普近期已回调5.6%，这个比例算高吗？过去15年，总共发生过29次超过5%的回调，如下图。 近期策略：随下跌加仓、补仓。 https://t.co/OU9iT4zTsn

彭博社：中国本周六重要会议解读 https://t.co/C9767UEWNS

从7月15日的高位下跌以来，美股市场已经在交易并消化“萨姆法则”预期了，个人判断今晚美股的大跌应该算是“尾部风险” 无论衰退与否，美国都是全世界需求的总龙头，它衰退全球其他地方也不可能好过。值得注意的是，昨晚在全球股市和大宗都下跌的情况下，只有美债是涨的，这就是它的价值…