Napoleon* became famous for his emphasis on speed toward a goal in the context of his military campaigns. “‘The strength of the army’, he stated, ‘like power in mechanics, is the product of multiplying the mass by the velocity.’”

Too much preparation but no action at all will only waste time eventually. In other words, everything must be done with limits. We cannot fall into the trap of continuous deliberation and planning but we must recognize the reality: no matter how detailed the plan is, we still cannot accurately predict the final outcome.

The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable. —Sun Tzu, Chinese philosopher and military strategist To study risk is to reconsider what we think we know about being

Both Napoleon and George W. Bush fell victim to the alignment problem. Their short-term military goals were misaligned with their countries’ long-term geopolitical goals. We can understand the whole of Clausewitz’s On War as a warning that “maximizing victory” is as shortsighted a goal as “maximizing user engagement.” According to the Clausewitzian