Bank CEOs should be forced to have a framed version of this image on their desks. https://t.co/MT7pXzpCRN
Bank CEOs should be forced to have a framed version of this image on their desks. https://t.co/MT7pXzpCRN
As such, the expected path of the short rate can have significant, meaningful effects on the repricing of securities nearly immediately, while the level of the policy rate works through the economy over time.
Prometheus Research • Equity Market Outlook
9月FOMC---Don't fight the Fed
本次美联储以11票支持1票反对的比例通过降息50bp的政策决议，点阵图中表现出鹰派指引，对25年底利率预测的中位数为3.4%（市场预期在3%以下）
因为联储重回前瞻指引（或者说front the curve），所以有以下分析： https://t.co/Jl7kzp1hfX
Fun graphic on $META from the Rowan Street annual letter (a hedge fund that printed a 102.6% net return in 2023): Shows how non-linear the path to good returns can be and how conviction pays off. https://t.co/jWQGVSc7LS... See more
This looks like a pretty reasonable plot of P(Russia invades Ukraine) over time. Except that, as was subsequently revealed, the image is in fact an edited version of a screenshot of this Manifold question, wherein the original price graph has been replaced with that of front-month Brent crude futures1 over the same time period. As it turns out, the... See more
Tanner Hoke • Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke
One of the basic premises of the technical approach is that the price action in each market (and each stock) is also a leading indicator of its own fundamentals. In that sense, chart analysis is just a shortcut form of economic and fundamental analysis. This is also why the intermarket analyst uses charts.
John J. Murphy • Intermarket Analysis
