Will scaling reasoning models like o1, o3 and R1 unlock superhuman reasoning? I asked Gwern + former OpenAI/DeepMind researchers. Warning: long post. As we scale up training and inference compute for reasoning models, will they show: A) Strong... See more

something obviously true to me that nobody believes: 90% of frontier ai research is already on arxiv, x, or company blog posts. q* is just STaR search is just GoT/MCTS continuous learning is clever graph retrieval +1 oom efficiency gains in... See more

I see almost 0 explorations on one of the AI use cases I'm most excited about: using AI to help humans coordinate. The coordination costs of human groups notoriously scales quadratically: the number of potential pair-wise interactions is roughly the square of number of people in a group.... See more