Why the slowdown? Global trade faces a tricky mix of headwinds: weak demand, persistent inflation, and tighter financial conditions. Even the WTO projects that overall merchandise trade will grow barely 0.1% this year.

Beyond short-term shocks, there’s a deeper story: the link between global trade and GDP is weakening. Economies are growing, but

Globally, during this cycle:

-China has had strong industrial production, but weak consumer spending.

-Europe has been relatively weak both in industrial production and consumer spending.

-The United States has been strong in consumer spending, but relatively weak in industrial production.