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Why I Have Slightly Longer Timelines Than Some of My Guests

New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests.
I think continual learning is a huge bottleneck to the usefulness of these models, and extended computer use may take years to sort out.
L-nk below. https://t.co/KxkBt4MsBL
What can LLMs never do?
strangeloopcanon.com
A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress — LessWrong
lesswrong.com