Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
Tyler Cowenmarginalrevolution.com
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Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right. Predic... See more
Byrne Hobart • How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?
("JP") and added
Why I generally don't recommend internal prediction markets or forecasting tournaments to organisations
open.substack.com
Lucas Kohorst added
Lucas Kohorst added
I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed con... See more
My Techno-Optimism
“Prediction markets reflect a fundamental principle underlying the value of market-based pricing: Because information is often widely dispersed among economic actors, it is highly desirable to find a mechanism to collect and aggregate that information. Free markets usually manage this process well because almost anyone can participate, and the pote
... See moreAndrew McAfee, Erik Brynjolfsson • Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future
Companies implementing prediction markets to test decisions include Google, Microsoft, General Electric, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Siemens. People are more willing to offer their opinion when the goal is to win a bet rather than get along with people in a room.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries
The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.
erim.eur.nlLucas Kohorst added
Why prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress
worksinprogress.co
Lucas Kohorst and added