Debasement (the expansion of the money supply beyond productive output) is occurring right now. As we’ve established, precious metals are capturing this through spot price appreciation against dollar weakness. Silver’s nose-bleed rally alongside gold at record highs confirm the dollar is losing purchasing power against real goods.

But Bitcoin isn’t... See more

Bringing this back to our earlier framework: metals are telling you spot debasement is happening; Bitcoin will tell you when the yield curve itself breaks.

We’re currently experiencing good deflation in technology sectors while avoiding bad deflation in credit markets. This is the worst possible environment for Bitcoin: productive enough to keep growth assets attractive, stable enough to keep Treasuries credible, but not catastrophic enough to break the system. A perfect goldilocks for maximum... See more

Most Bitcoin advocates conflate monetary expansion with hard asset appreciation, assuming it automatically flows into scarce stores of value. This ignores a critical mechanism: cheap money doesn’t necessarily mean money flows to hard money without understanding the shape of the yield curve. When rates fall, duration-sensitive assets, especially... See more

The Zero-Sum Reality

These three markets (AI growth, housing, and Treasuries) collectively represent over $100 trillion in capital. They don’t all need to collapse for Bitcoin to succeed in a negative rho world, but they do need to become less attractive relative to zero-yield alternatives.

That happens in two ways: either rates go deeply negative... See more