What Everyone Got Wrong About ‘the Long Tail’

Anita Elberse has amassed and presented data showing that digital distribution has actually made blockbusters a better business bet than ever.

Though digital shelf space is unlimited, consumers’ time and attention remain finite, so creators have to spend more and more resources to try to stand out.

What does the Long Tail have to do with this risk shift? In the earlier era of limited shelf space, distributors had to put money where their mouths were: retailers, publishers, and other intermediaries, therefore, had to be discerning gatekeepers. They managed to mitigate their downside risk through a portfolio approach, where winners would cover ... See more

He was absolutely right about the benefits to what he called “aggregators,” particularly the e-commerce platforms selling digital entertainment: He accurately saw that, unburdened from the costs and risks of carrying physical inventory, a platform like Amazon or iTunes was suddenly free to offer an unlimited assortment of ebooks, songs, and other d... See more

Nonetheless, for the majority of creators, the Long Tail has underdelivered financially. “The way [Anderson] wrote about it caused people to think that individual content creators will suddenly make more money than they used to,” Edery says, “and I just don’t know that that’s true.”

Ongoing marketing costs are one of a couple of major ways that Long Tail platforms have shifted significant risks back to the creators. Up-front costs are another. Spotify pays nothing for a song that never gets played, and Airbnb pays nothing for a room that happens to stay vacant; these platforms have no skin in the game. Meanwhile, the musician ... See more