There are losses for hedge fund investors with large public portfolios at high-cost bases. An early-stage company whose public holdings fall 25% in value feels less pressure than a crossover firm when its portfolio falls from an 8X multiple-of-money to a 6X multiple-of-money. Public securities of such firms are underwater, and private holdings are... See more

We tend to index what has worked before. The future often rhymes but doesn’t repeat the past. Looking back on the past decade, one can observe how cloud and mobile have created massive companies and crowned multiple venture funds as beneficiaries. However, one needs to consider that these markets might have matured and are not as high-volatility... See more

The downturn rests on a set of reinforcing mechanisms:

• Higher rates and risk premiums since 2022 pulled down public valuations, which dragged private market marks lower.


• Exit scarcity throttled VC liquidity, limiting LP distributions and slowing fundraising.


• Absent crossover investors left late-stage startups cash-starved, forcing insider-led rounds,

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