In investing, higher volatility usually equates to higher possible returns. In today’s world of online expression, we settle for lower expected value, market-level outcomes so as to not ruffle any feathers and not take any outsized risk. We’re basically hoping to allow people to know us enough so that they include us in their passive index of... See more

We tend to index what has worked before. The future often rhymes but doesn’t repeat the past. Looking back on the past decade, one can observe how cloud and mobile have created massive companies and crowned multiple venture funds as beneficiaries. However, one needs to consider that these markets might have matured and are not as high-volatility... See more

What Jerry is talking about is not adverse selection. It’s the second way of increasing convexity: funding the far-out-there-ideas, the Big If True ones. It’s one of the reasons I love the general venture zeitgeist around deep tech right now. If crazy bets like underwater energy storage, transformer-specialised chips, or tiny semi fabs succeed,... See more

Ours is a livelihood dependent on successfully being able to predict the future. And in a world so dominated by fat tails, randomness and optionality, this is a very hard thing to do.