Understanding Moments
updated 1mo ago
updated 1mo ago
There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries
such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the meaning of which, I have to admit, I had forgotten. (It’s a way to determine whether a model correctly fits data.)
The goal, then, should be to understand variation and, more importantly, to differentiate between the two types of variation. One kind is predictable and can be planned for. The other kind can’t be predicted. Sometimes it can be addressed, but some events are “black swans,” freak occurrences that may never happen again. The key is understanding the
... See moreThe goal, then, should be to understand variation and, more importantly, to differentiate between the two types of variation. One kind is predictable and can be planned for. The other kind can’t be predicted. Sometimes it can be addressed, but some events are “black swans,” freak occurrences that may never happen again. The key is understanding the
... See moreA key aspect of thinking quantitatively is understanding the laws of probability and randomness.
Means, medians, and standard deviations are examples of descriptive statistics. They are often useful, but not very interesting from a statistical or mathematical perspective. Inferential