Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future

If companies once expected perfect data to make consumers perfectly predictable, the fundamental uncertainty of life has deprived them of that prize. We aren’t machines—but that hasn’t stopped tech companies from trying to turn us into them.

Many of the most inspiring people and stories start with uncertainty, are saturated with doubt, yet arrive triumphant at places in life they could not see when they set out. Their successes are deeply human, derived from curiosity, imagination, and not a little bravery. They were prepared to navigate the unknown in pursuit of the ill-defined becaus

creativity of human interaction has never been more critical. We have a huge capacity for invention—if we use it. We have limitless talent for questions and exploration—if we develop it.

Accepting that the future is unknowable is where action begins. Experiments are ideal for complex environments because they yield clues about where you are; they are the best thing to do when you can’t see where to start.

Our choice is not between false certainty or ignorance; it is between surrender or participation. So we need to leave simple solutions behind, to be bolder in our search, more penetrating in our enquiry, more energetic in our quest for discovery.

absolute certainty about all aspects of life would be tyranny. So, at a time in our history where we have huge decisions to make—about the climate, about technology, capitalism, democracy—we need our freedom, of thought and action, more than ever. In an age of uncertainty, we have to ask ourselves what we need to be, and what we need to do—and to c

This is known as the automation paradox: the skills you automate, you lose. So the more we depend on machines to think for us, the less good we become at thinking for ourselves. The fewer decisions we make, the less good we become at making them. We risk falling into a trap: more need for certainty, more dependency on technology, less skill, more n

We’re so dazzled by such systems, we forget, or prefer to deny, that contingencies have multiplied, fragility has proliferated, and accurate prediction has become harder.

Both kinds of optimism alert individuals to fresh opportunities and to the resources needed to pursue goals. Where pessimists may avoid problems, optimists cope and solve. They are specially productive because optimists are more likely to reach out for help, to collaborate and trust others. That gives them more capacity and resilience than they cou