Uncharted

In a complex system like science, the fundamental robustness of the ecosystem is variety, because it facilitates a rich range of insights and discoveries – like penicillin – whose value can emerge even when unplanned. The big danger in confusing a complex system (like science) for a complicated process (like loading bags on planes) is that, in stri

For those determined to master the future, the only recourse is to force-fit a standardised model of a predictable reality onto a world that remains complex and rich but unpredictable in all its individuality.

Because trial and error is how children learn, and because it often looks like play, this way of working and being is also frequently misinterpreted as infantile.

In reality, without inside information, it is impossible to beat the market consistently.13 This is one reason why the market is increasingly dominated by passive investment funds that promise only to match market indexes, not beat them.

This mind wandering is without intention or plan. But, consciously or unconsciously, artists are incapable of not doing it. It is why Dickens prowled city streets at night, Ibsen took long daily walks and Virginia Woolf set out across London. They all sought to absorb the minute details that others might ignore or overlook but that artists collect.

In an age of uncertainty and change, being able to sense what to do in advance of reliable prediction could make businesses or non-profits smarter, more inventive and more relevant. Sense-making, the intuition for change and capacity to pursue it energetically is what markets applauded in Steve Jobs, a man who wasn’t an artist but thought like one.

The probability ratings, just like the colour-coded threat levels Manningham-Buller introduced, articulate ambiguity, reflecting that all information about the future is not equal, comprehensive or conclusive.

But it didn’t explain the foundational belief at CERN: that great, valuable discoveries derive not from planning but from adhering to a total commitment to the pursuit of new knowledge.

Epigenetics, the study of all the factors beyond genes that determine life, is revealing how much more complex inheritance is.24 So when you get into the genetic determination of personality, prediction becomes highly problematic.