Trump Truth

The argument in favor of a BSR is similar to the US’s rationale for stockpiling the largest amount of gold vs any other nation-state; it allows the US to assert financial supremacy over every other nation in the digital and physical realms. If Bitcoin is the hardest money ever known, then the strongest government fiat currency is the one whose cent... See more

Before we get to the crack-up-boom phase in this crypto bull market, I believe the crypto markets will experience a harrowing dump around Trump’s January 20th 2025 inauguration day. Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in 1H25. Obviously, every trader says this... See more

By government fiat, dollars can be created and then spent on goods and services by changing the carrying cost of gold. This is the definition of a fiat currency devaluation. Because every other fiat currency also implicitly has a gold value based on the amount of gold held by its respective government, these currencies will all automatically rise r... See more

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz. Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury... See more

Other than the US, the largest global exporters in order of size are China (currency: yuan), the EU (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound), and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must decline against all these currencies to encourage a company on the margin to relocate production inside America.

Trump is an astute politician and knows his base. To me, that means he must go big early, which is why my money is on a massive dollar vs. gold devaluation early into his first 100 days in office. It is an easy way to make production costs globally competitive in America quickly. It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity, leadi... See more

It is very important to my near-term positions whether I believe money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump’s 20 January 2025 coronation. That is because I think there exists a wide gap between crypto investor’s high expectations for how quickly Trump can change things and the reality that there are no politically acceptable solutions ... See more

Ultimately, as I argue in this essay, these changes will increase the supply of fiat money and financial repression globally. These two things must happen because no US, EU, Chinese, or Japanese leaders wish to deleverage their system to bring it into a new sustainable equilibrium. Instead, they will print money and destroy the real purchasing powe... See more

Let me be clear: the US can print more money without hyperinflation than China can. Trump and Bessent have made it very clear that this is what they intend to do. Therefore, Xi will allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate to float, which in the near term means the yuan will depreciate.

If the US government creates more dollars via a gold devaluation and uses some of those dollars to buy Bitcoin, its fiat price will rise. This will in turn spur competitive sovereign purchases by other nations who have to play catchup with the US. The price of Bitcoin then would rise asymptotically, because why would anyone sell Bitcoin and receive... See more