Trump Truth

It is very important to my near-term positions whether I believe money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump’s 20 January 2025 coronation. That is because I think there exists a wide gap between crypto investor’s high expectations for how quickly Trump can change things and the reality that there are no politically acceptable solutions ... See more

By government fiat, dollars can be created and then spent on goods and services by changing the carrying cost of gold. This is the definition of a fiat currency devaluation. Because every other fiat currency also implicitly has a gold value based on the amount of gold held by its respective government, these currencies will all automatically rise r... See more

If the US government creates more dollars via a gold devaluation and uses some of those dollars to buy Bitcoin, its fiat price will rise. This will in turn spur competitive sovereign purchases by other nations who have to play catchup with the US. The price of Bitcoin then would rise asymptotically, because why would anyone sell Bitcoin and receive... See more

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz. Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury... See more

Other than the US, the largest global exporters in order of size are China (currency: yuan), the EU (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound), and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must decline against all these currencies to encourage a company on the margin to relocate production inside America.

Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and der... See more

The argument in favor of a BSR is similar to the US’s rationale for stockpiling the largest amount of gold vs any other nation-state; it allows the US to assert financial supremacy over every other nation in the digital and physical realms. If Bitcoin is the hardest money ever known, then the strongest government fiat currency is the one whose cent... See more

there exists a wide gap between crypto investor’s high expectations for how quickly Trump can change things and the reality that there are no politically acceptable solutions available to Trump to quickly bring about such change. The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has at best one year to enact any policy changes on or aroun... See more

Trump is an astute politician and knows his base. To me, that means he must go big early, which is why my money is on a massive dollar vs. gold devaluation early into his first 100 days in office. It is an easy way to make production costs globally competitive in America quickly. It will lead to an immediate re-shoring of productive capacity, leadi... See more