This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic
Why did the SARS-1 outbreak die out after its extraordinary opening act—featuring rapid global spread, many super-spreader events, and rising alarm—whereas the SARS-2 outbreak did not? It was not just that there was somehow a more efficient public health response in 2003. After all, SARS-1 spread to many countries and it did so in many places, from
... See moreNicholas A. Christakis • Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live
This variation in R0 across individuals in a population can be quantified, and this quantity can have subtle but important effects on the course of an epidemic. The higher this variation (or dispersion), the more likely an epidemic will feature both super-spreading events and dead-end transmission chains. That is, an epidemic involving a population
... See moreNicholas A. Christakis • Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live
The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe | The Tyee
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Meanwhile, China’s experience breaking the epidemic in Wuhan appeared to offer a way out. An influential paper from Xihong Lin, a biostatistician at Harvard University’s School of Public Health, showed that the lockdown in Wuhan had essentially ended the spread of the virus immediately. Before January 22, the replication rate of the virus was 3.88,
... See moreAlex Berenson • Pandemia: How Coronavirus Hysteria Took Over Our Government, Rights, and Lives
In the early phase of the pandemic, there could also have been major investments in contact tracing at the community level, which would have had the added benefit of creating jobs in neglected areas. And there could have been far more robust efforts to install high-quality air filters in public spaces, including schools, while hiring more teachers
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