Thinking, Fast and Slow

Characteristics of System 1 generates impressions, feelings, and inclinations; when endorsed by System 2 these become beliefs, attitudes, and intentions operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary control can be programmed by System 2 to mobilize attention when a particular pattern is detected (search) ex

Errors in the initial budget are not always innocent. The authors of unrealistic plans are often driven by the desire to get the plan approved—whether by their superiors or by a client—supported by the knowledge that projects are rarely abandoned unfinished merely because of overruns in costs or completion times. In such cases, the greatest respons

The internal consistency of a pattern of inputs is a major determinant of one’s confidence in predictions based on these inputs.

People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.

high subjective confidence is not to be trusted as an indicator of accuracy (low confidence could be more informative). Short-term trends can be forecast, and behavior and achievements can be predicted with fair accuracy from previous behaviors and achievements. But we should not expect performance in officer training and in combat to be predictabl

an anchoring effect. It occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. What happens is one of the most reliable and robust results of experimental psychology: the estimates stay close to the number that people considered—hence the image of an anchor.

situation in labor negotiations and in international discussions of trade or arms limitations. The existing terms define reference points, and a proposed change in any aspect of the agreement is inevitably viewed as a concession that one side makes to the other. Loss aversion creates an asymmetry that makes agreements difficult to reach. The conces

System 1 tries its best to construct a world in which the anchor is the true number. This

Anchoring effects are easily observed in online trading, where the same item is often offered at different “buy now” prices.