They lied to us about Bayes' theorem
idealgas.substack.com
They lied to us about Bayes' theorem
OMG, I want to live in this article! Spiegehalter puts in words exactly how I approach probability: it doesn't exist as an objective measure, but it's still useful to pretend it does.
In a way, it feels like Calibrated Bayes, my favorite kind of Bayesian! https://t.co/pRSXkTV82l
One property of Bayes’s theorem, in fact, is that our beliefs should converge toward one another—and toward the truth—as we are presented with more evidence over time.