The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
World War I set the stage for the problem that would force a cyclical shift. Massive industrial growth created a desperate need for customers. World War I destroyed customers.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
If birth and death are at the center of the age, and the rituals for both are in tatters, the hunger for companionship is still there and asserting itself constantly.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
At the same time, the Democrats became more dogmatic on the economic principles and the ideological and cultural issues.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
It is impossible for the ordinary citizen to understand the complexity of the federal government. This is not because of lack of education or intellect, because it is not fully comprehensible even to those in the government. But to those outside, it is impossible to verify the good intentions or competence of the federal system, and incomprehensibi
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As with Jackson’s election, the election of Rutherford B. Hayes was chaotic and full of charges and countercharges. The 1876 election is considered one of the dirtiest and most tumultuous in American history.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
a state managed by experts dedicated to solutions without an ideology would do for the country what it did for the war: it would breed success. But of course, this became a principle, the principle became a belief, and the belief became an ideology. The ideology created a class who felt entitled to govern and who were believed to be suitable to gov
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The gold standard was generating massive investment. By 1900, the United States was producing half the manufactured goods in the world.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
This division and rancor are not new. As the social and economic cycles shift, division and rancor are always there. Before Reagan, the country split between the counterculture and Middle America. Before Roosevelt, there was the Red Scare, the populism of Huey Long, and the confrontation between the urban ethnic immigrants, on the one hand, and sma
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Political instability will arise a decade or more before the shift, accompanied by growing economic problems and social divisions.
George Friedman • The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
these cycles work in similar ways. The prior cycle reaches a failure point, or perhaps more precisely becomes increasingly inefficient.