The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

Political instability will arise a decade or more before the shift, accompanied by growing economic problems and social divisions.

Moving toward some sorts of ritualized relationships is needed to create an element of predictability in people’s lives.

the institutional cycle. The first cycle created the federal government, the second redefined the relationship of the federal government to the states, the third cycle redefined the federal government’s relation to the economy and society, and the fourth cycle will redefine the relationship of the federal government to itself. By this I mean redefi

The crisis of the 2020s will be abnormal not only because the two crises will combine into one but because the United States has reached an unprecedented point in its history. It has become the preeminent power in the world, and it doesn’t know if it wants the honor or how to manage it. This frames and intensifies the coming crisis of the 2020s.

Technocracy is the concept that emerged early in the twentieth century that argues that government should be in the hands of nonideological and apolitical experts whose power derived from their knowledge. Technocracy was not primarily about wealth. It was about merit regardless of the rewards. Thus, tech billionaires and assistant professors held t

The entanglement of various agencies with each other is compounded by a massive entanglement with society. The barrier having been broken, there are few areas of private life in which the federal government is not in some way involved.

As with Jackson’s election, the election of Rutherford B. Hayes was chaotic and full of charges and countercharges. The 1876 election is considered one of the dirtiest and most tumultuous in American history.

As we move from the 1950s to the 1970s and then to 2008, we notice a problem. A perfectly good idea morphed into another good idea, spread beyond housing, and then culminated in uncontrolled insanity. By 2008, no one, including the management of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or the Department of Housing and Urban Development, had any idea of the fragi

The crisis was not the crash of the markets. Rather, it was what resulted from the crash: a decline in employment and the decline of demand for manufactured products. As sales went down, employment went down. Therefore demand went down, and sales went down further, in a spiral that could not be arrested