The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The books Superforecasting (by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner) and How to Measure Anything (by Douglas W. Hubbard) have some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions.
Timothy Ferriss • Tribe of Mentors: Short Life Advice from the Best in the World
We know a lot less about hundred-year floods than five-year floods—model error swells when it comes to small probabilities. The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about how frequent its occurrence—yet the rarer the event, the more confident these “scientists” involved in predicting, modeling, and using PowerPoint in conferenc... See more
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
Previsivelmente irracional: As forças invisíveis que nos levam a tomar decisões erradas (Portuguese Edition)
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Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment:
Bob Hoffman • 101 Contrarian Ideas About Advertising
