The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Striving for an accurate map means being aware of the limits of your understanding, keeping track of the regions of your map that are especially sketchy or possibly wrong. And it means always being open to changing your mind in response to new information. In scout mindset, there’s no such thing as a “threat” to your beliefs. If you find out you
... See moreJulia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
So I’ve given it one. I call it scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
As the late physicist Richard Feynman once said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Being in scout mindset means wanting your “map”—your perception of yourself and the world—to be as accurate as possible.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
our judgment isn’t limited by knowledge nearly as much as it’s limited by attitude.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
The best description of motivated reasoning I’ve ever seen comes from psychologist Tom Gilovich. When we want something to be true, he said, we ask ourselves, “Can I believe this?,” searching for an excuse to accept it. When we don’t want something to be true, we instead ask ourselves, “Must I believe this?,” searching for an excuse to reject it.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
almost everyone estimated their company’s probability of success to be at least 7 out of 10, with a third giving themselves an eyebrow-raising 10 out of 10 chance, despite the fact that the baseline rate of start-up success is closer to 1 in 10.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
“You want to get into a mental state where if the bad outcome comes to pass, you will only nod your head and say ‘I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds, and I would make the same bets again, given the same opportunities.’”
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
In contrast to directionally motivated reasoning, which evaluates ideas through the lenses of “Can I believe it?” and “Must I believe it?,” accuracy motivated reasoning evaluates ideas through the lens of “Is it true?”