The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
In contrast to directionally motivated reasoning, which evaluates ideas through the lenses of “Can I believe it?” and “Must I believe it?,” accuracy motivated reasoning evaluates ideas through the lens of “Is it true?”
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Instead of being motivated by the promise of guaranteed success, a scout is motivated by the knowledge that they’re making a smart bet, which they can feel good about having made whether or not it succeeds. Even if a particular bet has a low probability of success, they know that their overall probability of success in the long run is much higher,
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“You want to get into a mental state where if the bad outcome comes to pass, you will only nod your head and say ‘I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds, and I would make the same bets again, given the same opportunities.’”
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
We indulge in wishful thinking. We cherry-pick evidence that confirms our prejudices and supports our political tribe.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
The point is simply that as people become better informed, they should start to converge on the truth, wherever it happens to be. Instead, we see the opposite pattern—as people get better informed, they diverge.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Being in scout mindset means wanting your “map”—your perception of yourself and the world—to be as accurate as possible.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
The “self-belief” model of motivation assumes that if you acknowledge the possibility of failure, then you’ll be too demoralized or afraid to take risks. In that model, people who believe that failure is unthinkable are the ones who try the hardest to succeed. Yet in practice, things often seem to work the other way around—accepting the possibility
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When you think of someone with excellent judgment, what traits come to mind? Maybe you think of things like intelligence, cleverness, courage, or patience. Those are all admirable virtues, but there’s one trait that belongs at the top of the list that is so overlooked, it doesn’t even have an official name. So I’ve given it one. I call it scout min
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our judgment isn’t limited by knowledge nearly as much as it’s limited by attitude.
Julia Galef • The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
We all start out with wildly incorrect maps, and over time, as we get more information, we make them somewhat more accurate. Revising your map is a sign you’re doing things right.