All models are wrong, but some are useful. George Box, statistician

“He wanted a life that meant something. . . . If he was going to do a fund, he wanted to be the best.”

These equations can make predictions using data that appears random; weather-forecasting models, for example, use stochastic equations to generate reasonably accurate estimates.

Brown’s view reflected the sentiments of some at Renaissance who felt that while Kononenko ruffled feathers and could be unusually blunt, his behavior likely reflected the culture he had become accustomed to in Russia. Mercer said hardly anything, of course, but he seemed to agree with Brown and others at the table voting to ignore Kononenko’s infr

Besides, Patterson argued to a colleague, if someone left a bank or hedge fund to join Renaissance, they’d be more inclined to bolt at some point for a rival, if the opportunity ever arose, than someone without a familiarity with the investment community. That was crucial, because Simons insisted that everyone at the firm actively share their work

Oddities in currency markets represented additional attractive trades. Opportunity seemed especially rich in the trading of deutsche marks. When the currency rose one day, it had a surprising likelihood of climbing the next day, as well. And when it fell, it often dropped the next day, too. It didn’t seem to matter if the team looked at the month-t

Laufer’s work also showed that, if markets moved higher late in a day, it often paid to buy futures contracts just before the close of trading and dump them at the market’s opening the next day.

“Bad ideas is good, good ideas is terrific, no ideas is terrible.”

“I realized I might not be spectacular or the best, but I could do something good. I just had that confidence,” he says.