The ‘Imperial Dollar Milkshake Circle’
These trade deficits are self-reinforcing rather than planned. It’s not like the global reserve country necessarily decides to have persistent trade deficits. Using the United States as an example, if the whole world agrees or is forced to mainly use dollars to buy commodities and settle the majority of international deals, then there is naturally
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
Under the current global monetary system that came into effect in 1971, the dollar has had three major cycles of weakness and strength, and each one of these cycles of strength has caused a global short squeeze, leading to financial crises, and impeding growth until resolved. Nations that have the least foreign-exchange reserves and/or the most
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
This means that the dollar tends to be structurally overvalued on a trade balance basis. It trades based on all of the normal fundamentals that other currencies do, but then also has this extra layer of demand at all times, for all these various purposes. Most currencies are primarily used by the country that issues them, whereas the dollar is used... See more
Lyn Alden • May 2025 Newsletter: A Trade Breakdown
And for decades since then, the United States has had a current account deficit. It reached 3% of GDP in the mid-1980’s until the Plaza Accord purposely reduced the dollar’s strength, which helped fix the deficit briefly. Then it spiked to 6% of GDP but the self-correcting force of the subprime mortgage crisis reduced that back down a bit.