The Formula

And so, by analyzing the data differently, we discovered that fresh-faced thinkers disproportionately break through not because youth and creativity are intertwined. They do so because on the whole, they’re more productive. Undeterred by disinterest or failure, young people try again and again. That’s why scientists write most of their breakthrough

Taking all this in and thinking about the young artists I admired, I had every reason to be concerned, especially for my friend Botond Részegh, a Transylvanian artist whom I’ve known for over a decade. His fantastic illustrations helped tie together the science and history narratives in my previous book, Bursts, and I’ve long admired his paintings,

But if we come to competition assuming equal footing, we’re far more likely to succeed. Remember how Pierre Azoulay found that an

But the engine that makes these hubs or superstars is preferential attachment—success breeds success.

Your success isn’t about you and your performance. It’s about us and how we perceive your performance.

Not because they’re more creative during this burst of activity. They succeed because they try more often. It just so happens that for most

Remember the old philosophical chestnut: If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? According to our new understanding of success, the answer is a resounding no. Audiences won’t applaud your earth-shattering, disruptive achievement unless they can witness its impact. In an era when we can track human behavio

In other words, it’s performance and ambition—where she thinks she belongs—that determine your daughter’s success.

While the results are unequivocal that confidence and self-belief play a huge role in success, they have to match strong performance.