No. 317: The DTC Playbook Is a Trap

Highly venture-backed DTCs largely have two pathways to longevity and success. They can sell to an incumbent, much in the same way that Bonobos and Jet.com have sold to Walmart, or they can try their luck and go public. The incumbents are willing to overlook the less than ideal DTC economics because what they’re buying isn’t a business model, it’s ... See more

Warby Parker might have started the DTC trend, but the true awakening came with Dollar Shave Club and Harry’s interrupting the somewhat ridiculous Gillette domination of razor blades at mass/retail. Would-be entrepreneurs and VC investors mistook this unique category situation (single dominant incumbent player, ridiculously high margins, small/ligh... See more

I think this drives at a more fundamental failing by Brandless in particular, that is likely true broadly: the company’s cost structure was completely unsuited for DTC. My strong suspicion — admittedly biased, given Stratechery’s business model — is that the biggest opportunities in DTC are in niches, and the best way to exploit those niches is by ... See more

Now that a few high profile DTC brands have been punctured on the public market and the economy is crashing, VC-driven DTC business model will likely go into its own recession. Without DTC, there is an opportunity for a variety of smaller, more sustainably funded players who do not seek hypergrowth.