The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking (Fully Revised Edition)

The amount that we simply have to believe, without understanding it, is increasing all the time. As a result, we tend to assign more importance to those who can explain something than to their actual explanation.

But in many cases, focusing too strongly on the flaws of an idea or project stifles the open and positive approach that is essential for good working practices. The basic principle is to take an idea that is not yet fully developed and to continue developing it, instead of prematurely abandoning it.

The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer suggests the following intriguingly simple trick: if you can’t decide between two options, toss a coin. While it is spinning in the air, you will probably sense which side you want to land face up. You then don’t even need to look at the actual result.

The psychology professor Barry Schwarz has a simple recommendation: reduce your choice. For example, in a restaurant, pick the first dish on the menu that you like the look of, and then immediately close the menu. Because the more options you juggle in your mind, the more dissatisfied you will be.

Whenever you have an important decision to make, write down what you expect to happen. After a year, compare your expectation with the actual outcome.

they are unconditional.

However, if the decision is more complex and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious answer, it is worth taking a break from thinking. Rather than trying to rationally weigh up all the arguments and information, trust your intuition.

Two variations of the Stop Rule: nonnegotiable limit (if we don’t reach the summit by 2 p.m., we turn around) and flexible limit (if my heart rate is still below 150 by 2 p.m., I will keep climbing until 3 p.m.).

Concentrating on weakness creates a negative impression from the outset.