The Art of Thinking Clearly

Survivorship bias means this: People systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. It is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind.

Whenever you are about to make a decision, think about which authority figures might be exerting an influence on your reasoning. And when you encounter one in the flesh, do your best to challenge him or her.

Social proof, sometimes roughly termed the “herd instinct,” dictates that individuals feel they are behaving correctly when they act the same as other people. In other words, the more people who follow a certain idea, the better (truer) we deem the idea to be. And the more people who display a certain behavior, the more appropriate this behavior is

A product that has been reduced from $100 to $70 seems a better value than a product that has always cost $70. The starting price should play no role.

Rational decision making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date. No matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future costs and benefits counts.

this, too. Instead of focusing on an item’s benefits, they create a story around it. Objectively speaking, narratives are irrelevant. But still we find them irresistible. Google illustrated this masterfully in

He has studied the phenomenon of reciprocity and has established that people have extreme difficulty being in another person’s debt.

Stories are dubious entities. They simplify and distort reality and filter things that don’t fit. But apparently we cannot do without them.

In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding.