Tell Me The Odds: A 15 Page Introduction To Bayes Theorem

the way we account for whatever initial probability estimates we have is by multiplying the prior probability by each individual likelihood.

Bayes Theorem is the same type of probability you already know, just in reverse.

The prior is how you account for your initial estimate of probability before incorporating new data.

After several tests, however, the initial probability becomes dominated by the new information, which is known as “swamping the prior”