Tell Me The Odds: A 15 Page Introduction To Bayes Theorem
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
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Bayes’s much more famous work, “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,”24 was not published until after his death, when it was brought to the Royal Society’s attention in 1763 by a friend of his named Richard Price. It concerned how we formulate probabilistic beliefs about the world when we encounter new data.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)
David Spiegelhalternature.com
Bayes' Theorem looks at how likely something is to happen, given that something else has already happened.
Albert Rutherford • Statistics for the Rest of Us: Mastering the Art of Understanding Data Without Math Skills (Advanced Thinking Skills Book 4)
If the philosophical underpinnings of Bayes’s theorem are surprisingly rich, its mathematics are stunningly simple. In its most basic form, it is just an algebraic expression with three known variables and one unknown one. But this simple formula can lead to vast predictive insights. Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That i
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
What Bayes’ theorem does is tell you how much you should change your belief. But in order to do that, you have to have a belief in the first place.
Tom Chivers • Everything Is Predictable
Bayes’s theorem begins and ends with a probabilistic expression of the likelihood of a real-world event. It does not require you to believe that the world is intrinsically uncertain. It was invented in the days when the regularity of Newton’s laws formed the dominant paradigm in science. It does require you to accept, however, that your subjective
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