Strategic Foresight

In the complex context the leader probes first, then makes sense and finally responds. In the chaotic context, the leader acts first, then makes sense of how that worked and then responds.

Simple or tame problems are clear – they have a solution which may be difficult to find, but it exists. Complicated problems are those with many variables which potentially have more than one right answer, but technically and with enough computing power, you could probably solve these too.

Recognising systems allows you to look for patterns in their interactions.

When you use Strategic Foresight you are turning the tables by looking to the future, identifying what is possible and, most importantly, what you can influence, which puts you in a position of ability (you are ABLE to do something about a given situation).

You can’t problem-solve your way into the future – problem-solving works on what is happening today by applying what has worked in the past.

This is where Strategic Foresight comes into its own. It builds on (and around) the more structured frameworks to help you to discover, assess and map the uncertainties that are part of your system.

Questions can open the mind to possibility; enquiry is the source of creativity and innovation.

The differences between simple problems and wicked problems affect the way you deal with them, so it is very important to understand (and agree) how to talk about and work with these problems. This means challenging every assumption you have that an obstacle, problem or mess is made up of a simple or tame problem – it is very likely that it is neit

Messes are exacerbated by complexity. Complexity tends to encourage fragmented thinking (which isn’t a good thing if you want to manage a mess) by making it more difficult to get to a shared, agreed understanding of a mess.

Focus too much on the past and you can’t adapt to change and the shape of things to come. Focus too much on the present and you are likely to miss small changes in your external environment. Focus too much on the future and you might make reckless decisions and follow one fad after another.