Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

The temptation is to use history (as the old analogy goes) the way a drunk uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination.

As futurist Roy Amara pointed out to me three decades ago, there is a tendency to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term.

“Son, never mistake a clear view for a short distance.”

“The future’s already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” The leading-edge line of an emerging S curve is like a string hanging down from the future, and the odd event you can’t get out of your mind could be a weak signal of a distant industry-disrupting S curve just starting to gain momentum.