Saved by Ben Cuan and
Searching for Outliers
In startups, the big winners are big to a degree that violates our expectations about variation. I don't know whether these expectations are innate or learned, but whatever the cause, we are just not prepared for the 1000x variation in outcomes that one finds in startup investing.
Paul Graham • Black Swan Farming
Embracing the Improbable
kk.org
The more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, because the more likely the outcome was influenced by extreme ends of luck or risk.
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on?
Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered.