Reward- and punishment-superresponse tendency Liking / loving tendency Disliking / hating tendency Doubt-avoidance tendency Inconsistency-avoidance tendency Curiosity tendency Kantian fairness tendency Envy / jealousy tendency Reciprocation tendency Influence-from-mere-association tendency Simple, pain-avoiding psychological denial Excessive

As I always say, the iron rule of life is that only 20 percent of the people can be in the top fifth.

Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

As I talk about strengths and weaknesses in academic economics, one interesting fact you are entitled to know is that I never took a course in economics. And with this striking lack of credentials, you may wonder why I have the chutzpah to be up here giving this talk. The answer is I have a black belt in chutzpah. I was born with it.

If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “Why, why, why?”

Fermat/Pascal

Demosthenes, parsed out, was thus saying that man displays not only simple, pain-avoiding psychological denial but also an excess of optimism, even when he is already doing well.

The great algebraist Jacobi had exactly the same approach as Carson and was known for his constant repetition of one phrase: “Invert, always invert.” It is in the nature of things, as Jacobi knew, that many hard problems are best solved only when they are addressed backward.

The correct persuasive technique in situations like that was given by Ben Franklin. He said, “If you would persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.” The self-serving bias of man is extreme, and should have been used in attaining the correct outcome. So the general counsel should have said, “Look, this is likely to erupt into something that will