i've read this paper that analyze the accuracy of prediction markets, the interesting bits about manipulation: - "Prediction markets risk constructing rather than reflecting political realities; prices that are presumed to reveal collective wisdom may actually amplify perceptions, momentum, and... See more

A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right.... See more