Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google
The paper analyzes Google's internal prediction markets, highlighting biases such as optimism, correlations in trading among proximate employees, and insights into how organizations process information and communicate.
static.googleusercontent.comThe document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.
erim.eur.nl“Prediction markets reflect a fundamental principle underlying the value of market-based pricing: Because information is often widely dispersed among economic actors, it is highly desirable to find a mechanism to collect and aggregate that information. Free markets usually manage this process well because almost anyone can participate, and the pote
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