i've read this paper that analyze the accuracy of prediction markets, the interesting bits about manipulation: - "Prediction markets risk constructing rather than reflecting political realities; prices that are presumed to reveal collective wisdom may actually amplify perceptions, momentum, and... See more

In a prediction market, it is relatively more difficult: maybe you are trading with someone who has natural exposure to a Russian invasion and is just looking for a hedge, but more likely your counterparty is, like, a guy who speaks Russian and is in dozens of Telegram groups waiting for just the right moment to trade against your resting order.