Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidenc...

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

The paper analyzes Google's internal prediction markets, highlighting biases such as optimism, correlations in trading among proximate employees, and insights into how organizations process information and communicate.

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RelatedInsightsHighlights

companies have a strong incentive to exploit behavioral biases, including availability, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring.

Richard H. Thaler • Nudge: The Final Edition

In a prediction market, it is relatively more difficult: maybe you are trading with someone who has natural exposure to a Russian invasion and is just looking for a hedge, but more likely your counterparty is, like, a guy who speaks Russian and is in dozens of Telegram groups waiting for just the right moment to trade against your resting order.

Tanner Hoke • Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke

Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries

The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.

erim.eur.nl