Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidenc...

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

The paper analyzes Google's internal prediction markets, highlighting biases such as optimism, correlations in trading among proximate employees, and insights into how organizations process information and communicate.

static.googleusercontent.com

RelatedHighlights

A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right. Predic... See more

Byrne Hobart • How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?

Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries

The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.

erim.eur.nl

I am also a fan of prediction markets, which can help identify the significance of events in real time , before the dust settles and there is consensus on which direction is which. The Polymarket on Sam Altman is very helpful in giving a useful summary of the ultimate consequences of hour-by-hour revelations and negotiations, giving much-needed con... See more

My Techno-Optimism

companies have a strong incentive to exploit behavioral biases, including availability, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring.

Richard H. Thaler • Nudge: The Final Edition

From prediction markets to info finance

vitalik.eth.limo

Statement on Prediction Markets

The paper advocates for reduced regulatory barriers to prediction markets, proposing a safe harbor for small stakes markets to enhance decision-making and information gathering in both public and private sectors.

users.nber.org