updated 4h ago
On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
Or even setting abortion aside, you’d think longtermists might express concern about the decline in fertility in industrialized countries, a question that some rationalists like Hanson have explored but EAs—80 percent of whom are childless, according to Alexander’s survey[*23]—rarely do, perhaps because it codes as conservative. At other times, tho
... See morefrom On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
Alameda couldn’t take on much more leverage, she’d reported back. If there was another drawdown, and lenders recalled their loans, it couldn’t pay them back. They could be ruined. SBF didn’t care. There was too much EV at stake.
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
Between all forms of gambling, Americans are probably making in excess of $1 trillion in bets annually.
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
But SBF extended this willingness to gamble to infinity—he was willing to make a 50/50 coin flip on the future of humanity! This is dangerous and depraved. SBF had been a major investor in the AI company Anthropic.
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
But Sam Bankman-Fried, of course, thought the Kelly criterion had you wagering far too little. He thought it was for wimps.
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
As news organizations scrambled to correct their coverage, for instance, traders at Manifold determined that the IDF probably hadn’t been responsible for whatever had happened on that particular night at the Gaza hospital.[*19] But the bigger concern I have,
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
She once threw a party where everyone had to be naked except for a mask, hoping it might loosen up the rationalists a bit. “But instead, they all just sat around the circle and behaved exactly the way they normally do and started debating like global trade,” she told me. (Aella’s efforts weren’t entirely fruitless; Scott Alexander met his future wi
... See morefrom On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 17d ago
“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 13d ago
“The rationalist utopia is a power trip,”
from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
Lucas Kohorst added 13d ago